Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings will both be aiming for a third straight victory when they meet in the Motor City tonight for a battle between playoff hopefuls at Joe Louis Arena.
In addition to winning two straight, the Red Wings have taken three of four since the Olympic break and have won four of five overall. Calgary lost its first game after the break, but has since strung together consecutive wins.
Detroit, which hasn't missed the playoffs since 1989-90, is currently eighth in the Western Conference and just one point ahead of the ninth-seeded Flames.
The Flames and Red Wings have split a pair of meetings this year with each team winning on the road. Detroit has won six of the last 10 matchups overall, while Calgary has dropped six of nine in Motown. The teams will complete the season series in Calgary on March 15.
The Red Wings are coming off Sunday's road win over the rival Chicago Blackhawks. Pavel Datsyuk's breakaway tally capped a five-goal eruption in the second period and proved to be the game-winner, as Detroit overcame an Andrew Ladd hat trick and held on to beat the Central Division-leading Blackhawks, 5-4, at United Center.
Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom, Jason Williams and Valtteri Filppula each lit the lamp in the middle stanza for the Red Wings, who are still 17 points behind Chicago for the division lead. Detroit -- the defending Western Conference champions -- has claimed the last eight Central Division titles
"(The Red Wings) are still the team to beat in the West," Ladd said. "They have the lineup to (contend). They dealt with a lot of injuries and managed to stay in the playoff hunt."
Jimmy Howard stopped 28-of-32 shots in the win for Detroit.
Datsyuk is probable for tonight's game with flu-like symptoms, while fellow forward Todd Bertuzzi, who left Sunday with a charley horse in his left leg, is also expected to play this evening. Datsyuk has recorded three goals and five assists over a five-game point streak.
The Red Wings are 17-9-5 as the host this year and are kicking off a three- game homestand tonight.
The Flames rolled past the Wild in Minnesota on Sunday night, riding Jarome Iginla's hat trick to a 5-2 victory at Xcel Energy Center.
Iginla recorded his second hat trick of the season and also dished out an assist in the win. Rene Bourque had a goal and three assists, while Mark Giordano had a goal and an assist for the victors.
"I was just shooting as hard as I could," Iginla said.
Vesa Toskala made his Calgary debut, stopping 27 shots in the start. In a deal before this past Wednesday's trade deadline, the Flames acquired Toskala from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for goaltender Curtis McElhinney.
Calgary's workhorse goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff is expected to resume his starting role tonight.
The Flames are 16-9-6 as the guest this year, but have lost six of their last eight road games.
<< Slumping Lakers target win vs. Raptors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reigning NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers hope to avoid
their longest losing streak in three seasons tonight when they hit the
hardwood against the Toronto Raptors at Staples Center.
The Lakers dropped their
<< 2010 Southeastern Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The competition level will be through the
roof in Nashville this week, as all 12 SEC teams will compete in the 51st
annual conference tournament. On the line is an automatic bid to the NCAA
Tournament, and th
<< 2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is the usual suspects that are destined
to do the most damage in Las Vegas this week, as the members of the Mountain
West Conference descend on the Thomas & Mack Center for the 11th annual
conference t
<< 2010 Pac-10 Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nine team will converge on the Staples
Center in Los Angeles to compete for the Pac-10 Conference Tournament
championship beginning on Wednesday, March 10th.
The only member of the league that isn't compet
Blazers welcome Kings to Rose Garden >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers hope to bounce back from one of
their worst defensive performances of the season tonight when they take on the
Sacramento Kings at the Rose Garden.
Carmelo Anthony posted 30 points on Sunday to
Flyers try to continue mastery of Isles >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will be attempting to extend their
current home winning streak in tonight's matchup with a New York Islanders
team they've dominated over the past few seasons from the Wachovia Center.
The Flyers ha
Jazz open trek against Bulls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surging Utah Jazz hope to keep the pressure on
Northwest Division-leading Denver when they begin a four-game road trip in the
Windy City against a reeling Chicago Bulls team.
Traditionally the Jazz don't per
Habs return home to face Lightning >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having just completed a successful road trip, the Montreal
Canadiens will play for the first time at the Bell Centre in nearly a month
when the playoff hopefuls host the Tampa Bay Lightning this evening.
Montreal began its
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting